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Back in October 2022, as Rishi Sunak assumed office as British prime minister, he was the fifth UK leader to take up the role over a six-year span.

Unleashed on the UK by Brexit, this signified exceptional governmental instability. So how might we describe what is occurring in the French Republic, now on its fifth prime minister in 24 months – with three in the last ten months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on Tuesday, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in exchange for support from Socialist lawmakers as the price for his government’s survival.

But it is, in the best case, a temporary fix. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a political permacrisis, the scale of which it has not experienced for many years – possibly not since the start of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Essential context: ever since Macron called an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, France has had a hung parliament separated into three warring blocs – the left, the far right and his own centre-right alliance – without any group holding a clear majority.

Simultaneously, the nation faces twin financial emergencies: its debt-to-GDP ratio and deficit are now almost twice the EU threshold, and strict legal timelines to pass a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are nigh.

In this challenging environment, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In mid-September, the leader named his close ally Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu presented his government team – which turned out to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.

To such an extent that the following day, he stepped down. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he blamed political intransigence, saying “party loyalties” and “personal ambitions” would make his job all but impossible.

Another twist in the tale: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for another 48 hours in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a task, to put it gently, not without complications.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the embattled president. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and leftist LFI declined to engage with Lecornu, vowing to reject any and every new government unless there were early elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he appeared on television to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The president’s office confirmed the president would appoint a new prime minister 48 hours later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So this week – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the country’s rival political parties were “creating discord” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Would he endure – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister spelled out his budget priorities, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were waiting for: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already supportive, the Socialists said they would refuse to support no-confidence motions proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those ballots, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, however, far from guaranteed to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS explicitly warned that it would be seeking more concessions. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

A Cultural Shift

The problem is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, similar to the Socialists, the conservatives are themselves divided over how to handle the new government – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A look at the seat numbers shows how tough Lecornu’s task – and future viability – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR want him out.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in two years is, similar to his forerunners, toast.

Most expect this to occur soon. Although, by an unlikely turn, the dysfunctional assembly musters collective will to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look bleak.

So is there a way out? Snap elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: polls suggest pretty much every party bar the RN would see reduced representation, but there would still be no clear majority. A fresh premier would face the same intractable arithmetic.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to step down. After a presidential vote, his replacement would disband the assembly and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the following election. But this also remains unclear.

Surveys show the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that French electorate, having chosen a far-right leader, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

Ultimately, France may not escape its predicament until its leaders accept the new political reality, which is that clear majorities are a bygone phenomenon, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Many think that cultural shift will not be feasible under the country’s current constitution. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and even disincentivizes – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”